7/25/08: UBS: Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas Will Be First to Recover

       Click here to read about UBS's take on the top five markets to show housing market recovery (Including Atlanta) as well as the worst five.

       June's smart numbers indicate a hint of good news. Even though we continue to have record numbers of homes for sale (15 months supply for singe family detached and 14 months supply for condos), average prices, while still lower than a year ago, are now showing signs of strengthening. Overall, the houing market continues to be driven by supply and demand, as well as the overarching economy and, you guessed it, oil prices. This data, now over a month old, should be viewed with an eye toward what's happening "on the street" right now, as more buyers are out with agents, looking at houses and making offers. If you're a seller in today's market, you should have a solid understanding of the current market dynamics and a strong relationship with your Realtor. If you're a buyer, talk with your agent about the motivation of the sellers whose houses you are looking at. Not everyone is in a "must move" situation, and many sellers don't have to sell their homes at a deep discount. If you dont have a Realtor, call us and we'll halp you understand the concrete realities of the different buying and selling opportunities that abound in today's marketplace.

       6/25/08: First Indications of a market turnaround?

       Although the MLS systems are reporting continued downward numbers of May's closings in all categories for the 22nd month in a row, the June market is more active when I talk with other agents and brokers in the area. What's that you say? A market turnaround? No, I wont put my finger on that statemnt just yet, but the recent increase in buyer and seller activity is what I've been saying all along. That the Atlanta is in better shape than what the national headlines have been reporting. And we'll continue to have a moderately controlled real estate market. I'm not saying there aren't deals to be had, because there are a lot of very motivated sellers out there. And at the same time, there are a lot of sellers who are not being forced to sell, and are holding prices firm. June contracts (I've written three myself) are going to be expressed in July and August closings, so watch for numbers increases then.

       Dave Ramsey, on CBS Early Show, 6/24/08, says Atlanta is one of the top six local economies that is actually doing very well. The five worst areas of the country (California, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Florida) are skewing the data nationally. The six best areas: Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Nashville, Kansas City and Manhattan, are doing quite well. "For most people this may represent an opportunity ... Real estate is a local economy." As a buyer, "It's a great time to buy" especially in those depressed areas where bargains can be had. Click here. to see his video (you'll have to wait through the 30 second leading commercial).

       Combine all this with the fact that long term mortgage rates have inched up a wee bit, you can quickly see that the landscape is changing as I described below: inventory will begin to shrink, and while some buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for the bottom, their price advantaves get wiped out by the mortgage rate increases. Now is still a great time to buy!

       5/30/08:Bubble, What Bubble? More Good News in our Housing market!

       5/30/08:Today Show's Barbara Corcoran, Real Estate consultant, recently talked about the bottoming out of the national housing market. In a nutshell, she said she didnt know, but thought that we were near the bottom, nationally. Locally there's a lot of buying and selling going on, and not just for foreclosures. Just like a recession, we really dont know we're there until it's long past. So what does it mean to sellers and buyers? Well, it means that if you wait too long, hoping to get the very lowest price for the property, some "not-so-good" things are likely to occur. First, you may miss the best possible price because someone else buys that property or the sellers stiffens his stance. Second, all the time you're waiting around, the interest rates are changing, and in a few weeks or months, the rate you get when you finally decide to write that offer, is now higher than you could have had months earlier, meaning you now have to pay more over the next 30 years for that mistake.

       5/30/08:Bad News Only sells Newspapers. I'm convinced of that, and together with many others in the industry, we KNOW that the real truth in our Atlanta market is that we continue to have a stable market environment. For many years, we have had reasonable growth in housing prices, not the crazy headline-grabbing fortune-hunter queep of the west coast or other overpriced areas. Just simple strong, steady, predicatable appreciation in our market. And that stability is being reflected in stable home prices throughout all price ranges.

       Recently, Seth Weissman, senior counsel to the Georgia Association of Realtors, teamed up with Prudential Gerogia CEO Dan Forsman, to publish a very informative and insightful article published in the AJC here. (If the link's broken, the text of the article is here. Take the time to read and digest this article, and I'm sure you'll agree: real estate continues to be the most stable investment in your wealth building portfolio. And Atlanta continues to be a great place to build that portfolio!

       4/30/08:Atlanta Gets Top Marks Good News in our Housing market!
No. 1 - Best Cities for Relocating Singles 2007, Worldwide ERC and Primacy Relocation, Mobility magazine
No. 2 - Top State Business Climate Rankings, Site Selection magazine, Nov. 2007
No. 4 - Best Cities for Jobs 2008, Forbes.com Jan. 2008
No. 6 - Best Places for Business and Careers, Forbes.com Mar. 2008
No. 8 - 10 Best Golf Cities in America, Golf Magazine, Golf.com, Nov. 2007
No. 10 - Most Affordable Places to Live Well, Forbes.com, Nov. 2007

       3/11/08: The fallout from last year's credit industry continues to have rippling effects throughout the housing market, and impacts both buyers and sellers here in Atlanta. Newly instituted rules from many lenders are making it tougher for buyers to get financing, and many are requiring more down payment committment from the buyers due to the way Appraisers are now conducting business. Again, as we've said so many times before, it is vitally important that you talk with us, your agents for life, as well as your lender, WELL IN ADVANCE of starting the house hunting process.

ATLANTA's UPCOMING HOUSING SHORTAGE!: While the national news media headlines continue to forecast doom and gloom, recent reports from the new homes community indicates that the Atlanta area may experience a SHORTAGE of new homes as soon as late fall or winter. Interesting, but also totally understandable. If you look at the housing supply numbers (new housing starts, permit applications, and zoning requests), and compare this with the demand numbers (numbers of sales compared to this time last year), you can quickly deduce that demand is continuing at about the same rate (due in part to builder incentives to reduce inventory). The result is a slow shrinking of the available housing supply (currently at about 11 months). So do the math: Since many builders have slowed/stopped their pipeline production, as housing supply decreases, and demand remains the same, once the supply shrinks to a more competitive balance, prices on new construction will rise.

Buyers need to act now: If you've been fence sitting for a while saying "I'll just wait til this thing bottoms out and then buy at the low", consider the following Time Magazine Article here. And if you fully understand what's happening in the new homes market, you'll also understand that fence sitting is soon going to cost you instead of helping you. There's a lot more to this story, and our clients have the advantage of knowing what these factors are, and how they are going to affect their real estate prospects in the near future. Give us a call and we'd be happy to brief you on the full details, including how to get a free $35,000 basement plus other incentives.

       1/11/08: The last few months have seen an overall shrinking of the available buyer pool, and resultant slowdown of sales, purely as a result of the numbers (oversupply of houses, smaller number of buyers). So the housing market here continues to be sluggish. That's sluggish, not declining, or dead, or in trouble, or receeding, or any of the other negative adjectives that have meen making news headlines around the country. And remember, that's exactly what sells newspapers, and sponsor's advertising -- shocking headlines. True, while many parts of the country have seen a decrease in home prices over the past several months as compared to the previous year or two, overall the housing industry nationwide, over the longer term, has reinforced the smart investment strategy of buying homes as the most predictable, steady, and successful way of improving one's net worth. Dont be afraid of shocking headlines. That's what they are meant to do, is shock you.

Now, having said that, our Atlanta market has had the benefit of slow but continued steady appreciation for most types of real estate. Some slices of the single family market have not fared well, such as the condos/townhomes. In the single family detached segment, this modest appreciation of 3-5% per year, over time, results in a solid payback at the time of sale. If you try to sell after only 2 years, without any significant improvements in the property, you'll be lucky to recoup your investment, after marketing costs. Unfortunately many sellers are pushed into a sale before they can fully realize a good return on their investment, and then blame the market for their "losses". Let's be realistic about things: Failing to plan ahead and understand the dynamics of the market is dangerous, and not getting reliable advice and guidance at the earliest possible moment is foolhardy. Sellers who take the time to talk with us about their particular situatioin can reap the benefits of quality decision making and maximize their investments.

Total homes sales in the area continue to be steady. While new home builders have seen a significant slowdown in sales, many have countered the trend by offering incentive packages worth many thousands of dollars, to keep sales flowing. As a business, the larger builders have no choice but to keep their production line going, keeping Atlantans in work and continuing to pump money into the local economy. Some national and regional builders have had to reorganize certain portions of their corporations in order to better deal with the decreased revenue stream, and others are making deals on the products they have in standing inventory. Meaning NOW is a GREAT TIME TO BUY ! !

The resale market is directly affected by the new homes market, and continues to show steady, though reduced, sales numbers. Additionally, many homeowners have not been able to obtain their desired listing prices. However, homes that are in show condition, and are priced At Market Value, continue to sell on a regular basis. Those homes that are priced unrealistically just sit on the market and are passed up by the buying public. Every overpriced home only helps the ones that are priced right sell quicker.

The outlook for the Atlant market is a good one for 2008, and I'll refer you to John Adams' article from last week's AJC entitled 2008 prognosticators show existing home sales going up. As you read this article, understand that our housing market is directly affected by the health of our economy, and a strong indicator of that is the number of people being relocated into the Atlanta area. And these numbers have continued to rise, indicating a strong and health job market. Meaning, NOW is a GREAT TIME TO SELL ! !

as of August 18, 2007

       8/18/07: With the recent announcement of Homebanc's bankruptcy filing, many homeowners are asking questions about the loans they have with Homebanc. Rest assured, these loans will continue in place, and most, undoubtedly, will be sold to another mortgage entity. These homeowners should continue to send their mortgage payments to the current address they have been. You'll be notified by mail when the servicing organization for your home loan is changed, and the new address to mail your mortgage payments.

What does this mean to buyers who have not yet closed? A Lot! As the mortgage industry tightens it's lending standards, buyers who were previously pre-qualified or even pre-approved may find themselves not being able to qualify for a loan. Most no-doc or lo-doc loans are gone. Most 100% financing arrangements are gone, and the credit scores for qualifying for a loan are rising. Loans will be harder to get as lenders will be looking harder and harder at credit history, available cash, and monthly ratios.

Buyers need to get their financial house in order before looking for a home. We recommend starting preparations a year in advance for first time borrowers, 6 - 9 months in advance for current homeowners planning a move. Why? Call us and we'll explain!

       7/15/07: This is a great time to buy or sell a house. But with over 100,000 homes currently for sale, buyers have a lot to choose from. Smart sellers are going with full service brokerages to list their homes, understanding that only the best full service brokers can expose their homes to the most qualified buyers in the marketplace. Most discounters, FSBOUs and menu-driven brokerages simply cannot deliver the vast array of marketing tools that it takes to draw in the buyers to your particular home. At Coldwell Banker, our sellers understand that their homes have to be in top shape in order to draw in the buyers. There are so many other homes now on the market, that are in terrific shape, that buyers are only going to view "Market Ready" homes. They instantly know if the seller has skimped on preparation, and these "sub-standard" homes get passed by and linger on the market unsold. Call us today and we'll help you get your home ready for these challenging market conditions.

       6/3/07: There's been a late spring "rush" of buyers all over the Altanta Metro writing offers and buying houses to lock in the deals available. With over 65,000 homes for sale (that's just the listed ones!), there are plenty to pick from, and many sellers realize what it means to be competitive in a market like this. If you're thinking of selling, and dont understand the previous sentence, you need to call us NOW, before you start planning your next move. Many delusional sellers think they can sell a lackluster house using dated marketing techniques, and are dumbfounded when they realize the truth, often too late to sell their house this season. This is a very very strong Buyers market, and the new homes companies are aggressively pulling in buyers with huge incentives and broker bonuses. Resale owners need strong representation and savvy agents, like us, to successfully sell their homes.

        5/1/07: We're well into the Spring market and many homes have already been bought and sold. There's not many buyers left, and the relocation Buyers have come and gone. Sellers, be warned! If your home isnt in "Show Condition", and isnt priced right for the market, there's a good chance that the buyers will pass it by and you'll be left to swelter in Atlanta's summer heat one more time.

       1/25/07: The holidays are over and the spring relocation market has definitely started. Buyers and their agents are all over the area, showings are up everywhere, and contracts are being writtten. Homes that are in show condition and are priced right are getting all the action. If you are thinking about selling this year, we need to list your home as soon as possible. Traditionally this activity will start a marked slow-down in a few weeks, and all the highly motivated buyers who have their financing in place, will have already bought something else, and will be out of the market. As a seller, if you wait too long, there may not be other buyers for your home. If you're a buyer, the newly approved 2007 GAR Sales Contract requires you to start your financing coordination much earlier than before. No longer can you afford to wait to find a house before you call a lender and start your loan paperwork. If you're one of our clients make sure you read the "Insiders Guide to the Real Estate Contract" for a discussion of key new changes to the contract. This report is in our reports section and is restricted access only for our current clients. If you're not one of our clients, call us today, and lets get you off the bench and into the game.

       Atlanta Is A Good Place To Be

       Although the housing market is cooling off in some areas of the country, our Atlanta market continues to remain stable and firm. Atlanta maintains a healthy job market, is a regional and international hub. The Atlanta metro area has diverse selection of housing choices — intown condos and lofts, affordable suburban communities, upscale golf and country club, prestigious Buckhead estates --and Atlanta still offers some of the best housing values in the nation. According to SmartNumbers, Days on Market for existing homes sold in the metro area actually decreased by 2 days for the first six months of 2006 compared to the same period in 2005; the price for an existing home sold increased by more than 4% over the same period — from $205,740 to $214,560.

       Kiplinger’s Personal Finance Report placed Atlanta fourth on its “50 Smart Places to Live” list based on affordability and livability. Nationally-known accounting firm KPMG calls Atlanta the “least costly place to do business among 23 metro areas with populations greater than 1.5 Million”. Between 1990 and 2000, the 55-74 population group grew by 23.8% in Georgia, the 7th largest growth rate in the nation; forecasters expect this rate to be even higher for the current decade thanks to hurricanes and rising housing and insurance costs in Florida and other Gulf states.

       Forbes.com places Georgia as 10th in the nation as a “Best State for Business”; Atlanta ranks 15th among metro areas. The study measures variables such as business cost, labor, regulatory environment, economic climate, growth prospects and quality of life. US News and World Report recognizes four of our area universities: Georgia Tech ranks 8th on the top public universities, Emory is 18th and University of Georgia ranks 60th. The J. Mack Robinson School of Business at Georgia State ranks 24th among public universities.

       Local Housing Market Continues Strong

       I've talked with a lot of people from various parts of Florida and many tell me the same thing. One broker, who was interested in the horse farm, told me that she cant get ANY of her listing shown, let alone sold. Thats in the Tampa area. Several other buyers in our area have told me the same thing, their market is very very slow right now. Our analysts have told us that the Florida seaboard market (most particularly eastern side), is beginning to feel the "Big Market" deflation, after many years of steeply inflated prices, now the steam is going out. To me that means if you want to make a move this year, it'll take a significant reduction in the expected sales price/profits of a property, and give up a little more than planned, just to get it sold in the near term. The alternative is to wait it out, hope for all hurricanes to miss the state, and hope that investors/buyers start liking Florida living once again. That could be a while ...

       Fortunately our real estate market has been and continues to be stable. Our appreciation continues to be around 4-6 percent per year, unlike some of the crazier markets that are now starting to feel a crunch. Our economy has steadily recaptured the jobs we lost in the 2000-2002 dot com bust, but now we're not seeing an evenly balanced market anymore, where both buyers and sellers have advantages.

       It's a Buyers Market!

       However with that being said, we've continuously had an oversupply of homes on the market and there's no let-up. Many owners who are in a "must move" situation either hold firm on their prices, or have enough flexibility to offer incentives to buyers and/or their agents, so that their property becomes more appealing to the buying public. We've seen television sets, major appliances, closing cost assistance and increased commission rates all used to make a particular home more atractive to the few number of buyers currently available. Sellers who still hang onto "old thinking" that they can get a "deal" fail to understand the market environment that they're in. They are "Penny wise and Dollar-foolish". Homes listed with discounted commission rates (anything below 3 percent) dont get the buying traffic becuase there are so many other homes that are priced more competitively. Most of those "old thinking" owners watch as the buying public passes them by and their house sits on the market with no showing activity. In today's market it takes a right-priced home, in perfect "show" condition, and a seller who is ready to offer incentives to close the deal. The oversupply of houses is easily demonstrated by an "Absorbtion Rate Analysis" for your area.

       ITP and OTP

       While the metro Atlanta area continues to be filled (ie replacement housing only, new construction replacing older "scrapers"), the outlying counties still have plenty of land, and new home starts continue at a steady pace. However, price increases in materials have pushed new home costs a bit higher. Even the builders arent making any more money than they did before, it's just costing them more for materials. When you have a $5000 increase overnight for wiring, the sales price goes up and the builders cant absorb it.

       Want to know what the leading economic forecasters from the Dean Terry School of Business are saying? Well, Dr George Benson recently addressed the upcoming Georgia outlook, growth rate, commercial real estate vacancy rates, major industries like air transportation, technology and hospitality, and travel and tourism, and the higher education crisis. Our clients are privvy to these and other insights that will affect not only the real estate market but many facets of our local economy.

        There are many new homes builders in the Atlanta area, and while prices were usually significantly higher inside the "Perimeter" than throughout the surrounding areas, this dynamic is starting to change with larger homes being built with more features and benefits outside the perimeter. One thing is certain, lots inside the perimeter are scarce and hard to find. Typically we can find very affordable housing (new construction) under $200k within a reasonable commute distance.  For Condos, it's an entirely different story, with some of the smaller units going for under $100k (resales). Call us for the straight talk on condo ownership in the Metro area. As with any real estate purchase, there are a lot of variables that must be considered, and we're ready to help you address those.

        If you're moving across town or across the county, we can help with all aspects of your real estate needs.  Having relocated 17 times in the past 26 years, we're experts at what it takes for a successful move.  We can also help you sell your present home, no matter where in the Atlanta area you live. 
We've helped people buy and sell homes from Douglasville to Suwanee. And if you need our help selling your home in another state, we can quickly find a quality real estate professional close to where you live, and have them contact you for a "no-obligation" consultation.

        Marti and Tony work as a team and we'd love to help you find your next home in the Atlanta area.  We help buyers and sellers all over the Atlanta Metro area -- all 17 counties!!  Take a few minutes to visit our website at www.TonyandMarti.com and view our current listings throughout the area.
 

Your Realtors,
 

Tony & Marti Giacobe, A Tradition of Service
5252 Roswell Road, Suite 202, Atlanta Georgia  30342
404-252-4908 Office, Voicemail: 404-257-8960
 www.TonyandMarti.com   www.giacobe.com    www.giacobe.net
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